Algal Bloom Prediction with Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Precise prediction of algal booms is beneficial to fisheries and environmental management since it enables the fish farmers to gain more ample time to take appropriate precautionary measures. Since a variety of existing water quality models involve exogenous input and different assumptions, artificial neural networks have the potential to be a cost-effective solution. However, in order to accomplish this goal successfully, usual problems and drawbacks in the training with gradient algorithms, i.e., slow convergence and easy entrapment in a local minimum, should be overcome first. This paper presents the application of a particle swarm optimization model for training perceptrons to forecast real-time algal bloom dynamics in Tolo Harbour of Hong Kong, with different lead times on the basis of several input hydrodynamic and/or water quality variables. It is shown that, when compared with the benchmark backward propagation algorithm, its results can be attained both more accurately and speedily.